Work from Home Choices Across Various Phases of COVID-19: Implications for Future Transportation

Abstract: The unprecedented rise in the number of people working from home (WFH) during COVID-19 makes the transportation engineers and planners struggle with the travel demand forecasting implications. If people are likely to telework even after the pandemic, what will this mean for forecasting and infrastructure planning? WFH provides benefits for highway travel to spread more evenly throughout the day and reduce peak-hour traffic. However, it is unclear how COVID-19 changes the WFH decisions over different waves of the pandemic in regions with different socio-economic and demographic contexts. All these conflicting natures of WFH render it important to be investigated during COVID-19. This study explores the factors affecting WFH decisions during the pandemic by harnessing the household pulse survey conducted by the US Census Bureau. Data suggests that the WFH percentage decreased from 60% in the first wave to 38% in the third wave. The correlations of socio-economic, household, locational, and COVID-19-related variables with an individual’s choice of WFH are estimated by applying the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. The results indicate that young, female, and the presence of a kid in a household are encouraged to work from home in all the waves of the pandemic. However, non-white and higher-income people choose to work from home more often than white and lower-income people with the progression of the pandemic. Additionally, these factors show spatial variability across different regions of the US. These findings may provide implications for future transportation planning considering COVID-19 shocks and suggest directions to reshape commute travel through long-term decentralization plans and equity programs.