The feasibility of Level 1 charging for the average electric vehicle driver

Abstract: Electric vehicle charging infrastructure is widely regarded as one of the major impediments to widespread electric vehicle adoption. It is generally assumed that Level 2 charging (240v) is necessary for most drivers, while Level 1 charging (standard outlet) is insufficient. Modeling driver behavior demonstrates that this is not actually true. This model simulates thousands of months of driving. The shape and spread of each simulated month are modeled on national driving data and utilize a negative binomial distribution. Daily charging capability (which is a function of car type and daily charging time) is then factored in. The model then records each time a vehicle’s battery reaches 20% of the maximum range. The ‘Probability’ is then based on the percentage of simulated months that a car never hits 20%, indicating that the driver does not need access to Level 2 or Level 3 charging during that month. Furthermore, the model records the total number of times the vehicle needed to stop at a Level 3 fast-charger and calculates the ‘average’ number of stops per month. The output of the model indicates that the vast majority of drivers could sufficiently charge with access to only Level 1 charging and would require less than 1.0 stops at a fast-charger per month. This is strongly correlated to the number of miles driven per day, but also to a vehicle’s range: higher range vehicles provide drivers with a larger buffer, increasing the efficacy of Level 1 charging.