Road Vulnerability Assessment to Temperature Rise: Expected Pavement Grade Reliability Loss

Abstract: Transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Higher temperatures can lead to increased permanent deformations in asphalt pavements, compromising both road safety and lifespan. Extreme weather conditions also disrupt transportation networks, causing delays and economic losses. Functional resiliency refers to a pavement's ability to recover functionality, although over time, though the process that degrades functionality may also degrade subsurface layers, leading to long-term distress and a shorter pavement lifespan. On the other hand, structural resiliency is the pavement’s capacity to restore structural integrity after damage from disruptive events. Both components of resiliency are crucial in adaptive and strategic planning. Evaluating road vulnerability to rising pavement temperatures requires considering both aspects of resiliency. This research aims to understand this vulnerability using a modified version of the expected pavement grade reliability loss (EPGRL) concept, which introduces an additional dimension: pavement sensitivity. The modified index comprises three dimensions: pavement grade reliability loss (hazard), betweenness score (pavement criticality), and pavement condition (pavement sensitivity). Comparing the original and modified versions of the index highlights the importance of including pavement condition in vulnerability assessments. By incorporating the pavement condition term, it was possible to identify pavement segments with the highest vulnerability, which could not be identified using only the colocation of hazard and criticality. As a result, the modified vulnerability index adopts a holistic approach, considering pavement performance, transportation serviceability, and pavement condition simultaneously, allowing agencies to more accurately identify vulnerable segments within the road network.