Improving Pedestrian Safety at Intersections Using Probabilistic Models and Monte Carlo Simulations

Abstract: Road infrastructure is critical to society, with intersections often becoming bottlenecks and contributing significantly to traffic accidents and fatalities. Modernizing these intersections is essential for improving safety, efficiency, and sustainability. This work introduces a novel simulation framework to investigate advanced strategies to enhance pedestrian safety at urban intersections by modeling diverse pedestrian profiles and realistic vehicle dynamics. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we simulate a range of pedestrian behaviors, including various walking speeds and crossing patterns, to reflect high-density, real-world scenarios. Our framework leverages probabilistic models to capture pedestrian crossing behaviors under two conditions: when vehicles have a red light (where pedestrians are expected to cross safely) and when pedestrians attempt to cross despite a green light for vehicles. To achieve realistic vehicle dynamics, we incorporate the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM), a widely accepted car-following model that simulates vehicle behavior and responsiveness. Additionally, probability distribution models are employed to represent the arrival patterns of vehicles and pedestrians, creating a more accurate depiction of intersection traffic flow. This approach moves beyond assumption-based methods, supporting decision-making under uncertainties and laying the groundwork for data-driven models that offer quantifiable insights into safe crossings under varying traffic conditions. Our preliminary simulations reveal critical insights into optimizing intersection safety, setting the foundation for improved adaptive traffic control systems. Future work will include actual and live data integration to further refine safety measures, guiding the development of adaptive, data-enriched strategies for urban intersection safety enabled by digital twins. This framework serves as an initial step toward advanced intersection management focusing on prioritizing pedestrian safety.