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ICTD 2025

Street & Highway Operations

POSTER RECEPTION (View list of posters here)

A Bayesian Switch Point Granular Analysis of Variable Speed Limits Impact on Traffic by Time of Day

Tuesday, June 10, 2025
4:45 PM – 6:00 PM MT

    Primary Author(s)

  • Norris Novat, P.E. (he/him/his)

    Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Engineer
    Leidos Inc. STOL-Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center
    McLean, VA, United States

    • Presenter(s)

  • Norris Novat, P.E. (he/him/his)

    Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Engineer
    Leidos Inc. STOL-Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center
    McLean, VA, United States

    • Co-Author(s)

  • Francisca Kasubi

    Graduate Research Assistant
    FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
    Miami, FL, United States

    • Presenter(s)

  • Francisca Kasubi

    Graduate Research Assistant
    FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
    Miami, FL, United States

    • Co-Author(s)

  • Hellen J. Shita, n/a

    Graduate Research Assistant
    Florida International University
    Miami, Florida, United States

    • Presenter(s)

  • Hellen J. Shita, n/a

    Graduate Research Assistant
    Florida International University
    Miami, Florida, United States

    • Co-Author(s)

  • Abdallah Kinero

    Graduate Research Assistant
    Florida International University
    Miami, FL, United States

    • Presenter(s)

  • Abdallah Kinero

    Graduate Research Assistant
    Florida International University
    Miami, FL, United States

    • Co-Author(s)

  • NN

    Norran K. Novat, n/a

    Graduate Research Assistant
    Western Michigan University
    Kalamazoo, Michigan, United States

    • Presenter(s)

  • NN

    Norran K. Novat, n/a

    Graduate Research Assistant
    Western Michigan University
    Kalamazoo, Michigan, United States

    • Co-Author(s)

  • BK

    Boniphace Kutela, n/a

    Associate Research Engineer
    Texas A&M Transportation Institute
    Houston, Texas, United States

    • Submitter(s)

  • Norris Novat, P.E. (he/him/his)

    Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Engineer
    Leidos Inc. STOL-Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center
    McLean, VA, United States

Abstract: The implementation of Variable Speed Limit (VSL) systems marks a significant advancement in traffic management, aimed at enhancing road safety and optimizing traffic flow. This study employs a Bayesian Change Point Analysis to evaluate the impact of VSL systems on the I-95 corridor in Virginia, focusing on different times of the day across weekdays and weekends. The analysis reveals that VSL systems are highly effective in reducing mean speeds and moderating speed variability, particularly during peak traffic periods on weekdays. For instance, on Tuesdays, the early mean speed during peak AM periods decreased from 67.95 mph to approximately 66 mph post-VSL implementation, indicating successful speed regulation during morning rush hours. Similarly, the evening peak PM period showed a reduction in mean speeds from 68.30 mph to 66.55 mph. Compared to Sundays, where traffic is influenced by recreational activities leading to greater speed fluctuations, weekdays exhibit more consistent traffic patterns, allowing VSL systems to better manage speeds. The study underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and dynamic adjustment of VSL settings to respond to real-time traffic conditions. Public awareness campaigns are recommended to enhance driver compliance, and further research is suggested to explore long-term impacts under varying environmental conditions. The findings provide valuable insights for transportation agencies and policymakers, highlighting the need for tailored traffic management strategies that consider the distinct characteristics of weekday and weekend traffic flows, enhancing road safety and traffic efficiency.

Keywords: Variable Speed Limit, Bayesian Change Point Analysis, Traffic Management, Traffic Flow, I-95 Corridor, Weekday vs. Weekend Traffic.

Learning Objectives:

Attendees can expect to learn the following from this session:
  • Application of Bayesian Change Point Analysis Introduce Bayesian Change Point Analysis as a method for assessing changes in traffic patterns, with specific focus on its application to VSL system evaluations.
  • Impact of VSL on Speed Regulation: To demonstrate how VSL systems influence traffic speeds, particularly focusing on peak AM and PM periods, as seen in the I-95 corridor study.
  • Weekday vs. Weekend Traffic Dynamics: To differentiate between weekday and weekend traffic patterns, explaining how VSL systems adapt to manage speed variability and traffic flow effectively.
  • Practical Implications for Transportation Agencies: To highlight how transportation agencies can use these findings to implement tailored traffic management strategies and promote public awareness for better compliance