How to prioritize microtransit implementation in rural areas? A state-level tool.

Abstract: Microtransit is an on-demand ride-sharing transit service offered by medium- to small-sized fleets with app-based booking services. In recent years, there has been increased interest in microtransit services as a potential solution to address the challenges of low demand and infrequent public transport services faced in rural areas. Determining the best locations for microtransit services is complex and context specific. Hence tools to assess effectiveness and prioritize investments are needed, helping rural areas to make assertive decisions with limited resources. In collaboration with the New Mexico Department of Transportation NMDOT we created an interactive map to identify the areas with higher microtransit propensity, where this type of public transportation would more likely succeed.

In order to understand the feasibility of the service and elucidate how to better prioritize this service, we created a microtransit propensity bivariate analysis based on the transit potential and transit need of an area. Transit potential is based on population and job density which is calculated from the American Community Survey (ACS) and the LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) Census data products. Transit need is determined using sociodemographic characteristics of the population from the ACS. Specific sociodemographic variables are chosen and assigned weights to calculate the transit need index. This index is then standardized and expressed as a Z-score, representing the number of standard deviations from the mean. Finally, the bivariate analysis is conducted by setting thresholds for transit potential and transit need. In areas with medium and high transit need and medium transit potential, microtransit would be more likely to succeed. Low transit potential areas are more suitable for specialized transportation services due to the low demand.

This tool can benefit DOTs, local agencies and communities seeking the best transit option for their region without having to invest extensive resources that are often not readily available in rural areas. This project has been summarized in a guide and story map to be reproducible and easily explored for the direct benefactors.