Towards Climate-Resilient Pavements: Predicting Pavement Deterioration Under Future Climate

Abstract: Climate change presents significant and evolving challenges for pavement infrastructure, especially in cold regions where extreme temperature variations and intensified weather events lead to accelerated deterioration. Pavements in these climates are highly susceptible to cracking due to the increased brittleness of asphalt binders at low temperatures. As climate extremes become more frequent and severe, cold regions experience greater temperature fluctuations, larger daily temperature ranges, and more intense precipitation events, including increased rainfall and flooding. These changes threaten the long-term durability, safety, and functionality of pavement structures, particularly where infrastructure must withstand both regular seasonal changes and unexpected, extreme weather events. Traditional design guides often fall short in addressing these rapidly evolving climate stressors. They were not developed with future climate variability and may therefore underestimate the frequency and intensity of pavement distress under future climate scenarios. This gap highlights the need for advanced predictive models that incorporate forward-looking climate data to improve infrastructure resilience and performance assessment.
This study aims to bridge this gap by utilizing the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database to develop machine learning models that quantify relationships between climate stressors and pavement performance indicators, with a particular emphasis on the challenges facing cold regions. Using down-scaled climate projection data, we will model and predict pavement deterioration trends under a range of future climate scenarios. Our approach involves capturing key indicators—such as temperature variation, rainfall intensity, and freeze-thaw cycles—that directly influence pavement distress and exploring how these factors impact pavement longevity and performance. By integrating advanced predictive analytics with climate projections, this study will generate valuable insights into the mechanisms by which changing climate conditions affect pavement integrity in cold climates. The resulting models will provide a basis for climate-resilient pavement design strategies, enhancing infrastructure durability and adaptability. These findings will be critical in guiding updates to design standards and maintenance protocols, ensuring that pavement infrastructure is better prepared for the ongoing and future impacts of climate change.