Modeling Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Transportation Infrastructure Risk in Colorado

Abstract: In recent decades, Colorado has witnessed an increasing frequency and severity of wildfires, exacerbated by shifting climate patterns. The aftermath of these fires often leads to significant environmental changes, including the removal of vegetation that stabilizes the soil. Without this vegetation, the region becomes highly susceptible to erosion and debris flow, especially when combined with precipitation events. As a result, post-wildfire flooding poses a growing threat to the state's infrastructure, particularly roadways that may not be designed to withstand these combined forces of fire damage and heavy rainfall.

Despite the growing urgency of this issue, there has been limited research focused on modeling the risk to Colorado's infrastructure from post-wildfire debris flows. Additionally, the state's varied ecosystems, which range from mountainous forests to arid plains, make it challenging to accurately predict wildfire behavior and subsequent flooding across different regions. The integration of climate change models into risk assessments is also underdeveloped, leaving a critical gap in long-term planning.

This study seeks to address these challenges by modeling the risk of roadway infrastructure to post-wildfire debris flow in Colorado. The analysis cross-references multiple data sources, including watershed characteristics, existing road networks, wildfire hazard maps, terrain data, vegetation types, soil conditions, and precipitation patterns. By identifying locations most at risk and ranking them in terms of severity and potential impact, this model provides a spatial and temporal framework for understanding infrastructure vulnerability. The findings aim to inform decision-makers, allowing for more effective allocation of resources to reinforce vulnerable roadways and design resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding future wildfire-related hazards.